Impact environnemental de l'infrastructure d'IA au Canada

The scale of demand is enormous. RBC estimates that if all data centre projects currently under regulatory review proceed, they could account for up to 14% of Canada's total power needs by 2030. The IEA projects global data centre electricity consumption could reach approximately 945 TWh by 2030, nearly doubling from current levels, with AI workloads as the primary driver.

Québec is at the epicentre. Hydro-Québec anticipates data centres will boost demand for hydroelectricity by 14% from 2023 to 2032, with data centre electricity use expected to increase sevenfold by 2035 to over 1,000 MW. In February 2026, Hydro-Québec proposed to the Régie de l'énergie a new rate for large data centres (>5 MW) of approximately 13 cents/kWh — roughly double what current large-power customers pay.

Ontario faces equally intense pressure. Canada's National Observer mapped at least 15 proposed hyperscale data centre projects in Ontario with a combined capacity of 2,202 MW — equivalent to the annual electricity draw of approximately two million homes. Ontario says there is interest in developing as much as 6,500 MW of new data centres — about 30% of Ontario's current peak electricity load. The province introduced regulations in 2025 requiring Ministerial approval before large data centres connect to the grid.

Alberta has seen a surge of data centre applications totalling more than 6 GW from just 12 projects, far exceeding available capacity. In March 2026, the Alberta Utilities Commission rejected Synapse Real Estate Corp.'s application for a 1.4 GW natural gas-fired power plant to serve what would have been Canada's largest data centre complex in Olds, Alberta, citing "significant deficiencies" including 600 undisclosed backup diesel generators. This is the largest regulatory rejection of an AI infrastructure project in Canada to date.

Water consumption is a growing concern. Microsoft's Etobicoke (Toronto) data centre was approved to use up to 39.75 litres of water per second for cooling — equivalent to approximately 1.2 billion litres per year, or 500 Olympic-sized swimming pools. Google reported a 20% increase in water consumption in 2023 attributed to AI workloads; Microsoft reported a 34% increase. The UN special rapporteur on human rights and drinking water called for a global moratorium on new data centre construction, saying "we have collectively embarked on a suicide mission."

Canada's climate targets — 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, net-zero by 2050 — depend on electrification of transportation, heating, and industry. Every megawatt consumed by data centres is a megawatt unavailable for these transitions. The tension is already materializing: the November 2025 Canada-Alberta MOU suspended clean energy regulations, allowing gas-powered AI data centres in Alberta. Capital Power, an Alberta gas company, lobbied the Carney government 37 times in the lead-up. Twelve days after the MOU was signed, Capital Power's CEO told Bloomberg it was now possible to build new gas-fired power plants to support AI data centres.