This site is a work-in-progress prototype.
Escalating Confidence: medium Potential severity: Severe Version 1

AI-generated disinformation appeared at scale during the 2025 Canadian federal election. Canada's intelligence agencies assess the threat as significant and growing. Neither federal nor provincial electoral law was designed to address synthetic media, and electoral institutions lack technical detection capacity — creating a concrete and widening gap between the threat and institutional preparedness, with Quebec's October 2026 election as the next high-stakes test.

Identified: December 6, 2023 Last assessed: March 8, 2026

Description

Generative AI is creating concrete threats to the integrity of Canadian elections at both the federal and provincial levels. During the 2025 federal election, AI-generated deepfake videos of Prime Minister Mark Carney reached millions of viewers on TikTok, Facebook, and X. Over 40 Facebook pages ran fraudulent investment scams using AI-generated likenesses of Carney and Dragon’s Den personalities. Academic analysis documented the prevalence and platform dynamics of election deepfakes.

Canada’s intelligence agencies have assessed the threat as significant and growing. The Communications Security Establishment’s 2023 update on cyber threats to Canada’s democratic process identified generative AI as making it easier for state and non-state actors to produce convincing disinformation. The Hogue Commission’s final report on foreign interference identified AI-enabled disinformation as part of the broader threat landscape. CSE noted that the barrier to creating high-quality synthetic content has dropped substantially.

The legislative and institutional response has not kept pace. The Canada Elections Act was drafted before generative AI existed. While it prohibits certain misleading communications, it does not address synthetic media. The Chief Electoral Officer proposed targeted amendments in November 2024 but no legislation has been introduced. Elections Canada lacks dedicated technical capacity for synthetic media detection.

At the provincial level, Quebec’s Chief Electoral Officer (DGEQ) has publicly identified AI as a serious threat to the October 2026 provincial election while acknowledging his institution’s limited capacity to respond. Bill 98, adopted in May 2025, created an offense for knowingly spreading false election information with penalties up to $60,000 — but the DGEQ concedes that prosecution under the criminal standard of proof is extremely difficult. Élections Québec received complaints from citizens who obtained incorrect election information from commercial AI chatbots during municipal elections.

The Commission de l’éthique en science et en technologie (CEST) has documented that AI-generated deepfakes disproportionately target women through non-consensual pornographic content, potentially discouraging their political participation — adding a gendered dimension to the election integrity hazard.

The pattern is consistent across jurisdictions: institutional threat assessments identify AI disinformation as significant, but the governance response — legislative frameworks, detection capacity, platform obligations — lags behind the capability that enables the threat.

Risk Pathway

Generative AI lowers the cost of producing convincing disinformation targeting Canadian voters — synthetic audio and video of political figures, fabricated news articles, automated social media campaigns — while Canadian electoral institutions lack technical capacity to detect or counter AI-generated content at scale. Canadian law does not specifically address AI-generated disinformation in elections. The Canada Elections Act was drafted before generative AI existed. Quebec's Bill 98 created an offense for knowingly spreading false election information, but prosecution requires proving intent beyond reasonable doubt, which the DGEQ acknowledges is extremely difficult. Elections Canada lacks dedicated synthetic media detection capacity. Commercial AI chatbots already provide incorrect election information to voters — Élections Québec received complaints during recent municipal elections. The gap between assessed threat level and institutional preparedness is widening as generative AI capability increases.

Assessment History

Escalating Confidence: medium Severe

AI-generated deepfakes appeared at scale during the 2025 Canadian federal election — deepfake videos of PM Carney reached millions on TikTok and Facebook, 40+ Facebook pages ran fraudulent AI-generated investment scams using his likeness, and academic analysis documented the prevalence. CSE assessed AI-enabled interference as a significant threat in 2023. The Hogue Commission identified AI disinformation as part of the foreign interference landscape. The DGEQ has publicly acknowledged that Quebec's electoral institutions lack capacity to counter AI threats ahead of the October 2026 provincial election. Élections Québec received complaints about voters receiving incorrect information from AI chatbots during municipal elections. Status escalated from active to escalating based on confirmed deepfake deployment during the 2025 federal election.

Consolidates previous separate federal and Quebec hazard assessments. Status escalated based on confirmed deepfake activity during 2025 federal election.

Triggers

  • October 2026 Quebec provincial election
  • Increasing accessibility and quality of voice cloning and deepfake generation tools
  • Foreign state actors with demonstrated interest in Canadian electoral interference
  • Social media platforms with limited capacity to detect or label synthetic content
  • Commercial AI chatbots providing unvetted election information to voters

Mitigating Factors

  • CSE and CSIS awareness and monitoring of the threat
  • Quebec Bill 98 creating an offense for knowingly spreading false election information
  • Chief Electoral Officer's November 2024 proposal for targeted Canada Elections Act amendments
  • CEST documentation of AI risks to democratic participation
  • Academic and media scrutiny raising public awareness

Risk Controls

  • Amend the Canada Elections Act to explicitly address AI-generated synthetic media used to mislead voters
  • Develop technical capacity within Elections Canada and Élections Québec for synthetic media detection
  • Require AI platform operators to label, restrict, or redirect election-related queries to official sources during election periods
  • Establish cross-agency coordination between CSE, CSIS, and Elections Canada for real-time AI disinformation threat monitoring
  • Fund public media literacy campaigns on AI-generated disinformation, with francophone and Indigenous-language components
  • Strengthen enforcement mechanisms for Quebec's Bill 98 beyond the criminal standard of proof

Materialized Incidents

Affected Populations

  • Canadian voters
  • Quebec voters facing October 2026 provincial election
  • Political candidates and elected officials
  • Women targeted by gendered deepfake harassment discouraging political participation
  • Election administrators

Entities Involved

Published 2023 cyber threats assessment identifying AI deepfakes as significant threat to Canadian elections

Elections Canada
affected_party

Electoral authority lacking dedicated technical capacity for synthetic media detection

Élections Québec
deployeraffected_party

Electoral authority acknowledging AI threats and planning internal AI chatbot deployment for October 2026 election

Documented AI risks to democratic participation including gendered deepfake harassment in 2024 report

Responses

Communications Security Establishment

Published updated cyber threats assessment identifying AI deepfakes as significant threat to Canadian democratic processes

Elections Canada

Chief Electoral Officer proposed targeted amendments to the Canada Elections Act to address synthetic media

Élections Québec

Supported adoption of Bill 98 creating offense for knowingly spreading false election information

Commission de l'éthique en science et en technologie

Published report documenting AI risks to democratic participation including gendered deepfake harassment

Élections Québec

DGEQ publicly warned voters against relying on AI chatbots for election information

Related Records

Taxonomy

Domain
Elections & Info Integrity
Harm type
MisinformationAutonomy & Manipulation
AI involvement
MisuseMonitoring Gap
Lifecycle phase
DeploymentMonitoring

Sources

  1. Cyber Threats to Canada's Democratic Process: 2023 Update Official — Communications Security Establishment (Dec 6, 2023)
  2. Deepfakes in the 2025 Canadian Election: Prevalence, Partisanship, and Platform Dynamics Academic — arXiv (Dec 18, 2025)
  3. Final Report of the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions Official — Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference (Hogue Commission) (Jan 28, 2025)
  4. Artificial intelligence: the Quebec electoral officer calls for better legislative oversight Media — CTV News (Canadian Press) (Mar 8, 2026)
  5. Deepfake video of Canadian Prime Minister reaches millions on TikTok, X Academic — DFRLab (Atlantic Council) (Jun 19, 2025)

Changelog

VersionDateChange
v1 Mar 8, 2026 Initial publication consolidating federal and Quebec election integrity hazards