CSE Assesses PRC Likely Uses Machine Learning to Profile Targets Connected to Canadian Democratic Processes
CSE assessed in its 2025 democratic threat update that the PRC likely has the ability and intent to use machine learning to produce detailed intelligence profiles of potential targets connected to democratic processes, including voters, politicians, media, public servants, and activists.
In the Cyber Threats to Canada's Democratic Process: 2025 Update (TDP 2025), published March 2025, the Communications Security Establishment assessed that it is likely that the PRC has both the ability and intent to use machine learning to analyse data to produce detailed intelligence profiles of potential targets connected to democratic processes — including voters, politicians, members of the media, public servants, and activists. CSE noted that data available for such profiling includes shopping habits, health records, and browsing and social media activity obtained through open source acquisition, covert purchase, and theft.
Separately, CSE's National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–2026 (NCTA), published October 2024, assessed that well-resourced states are very likely leveraging AI tools to help process and analyze large volumes of data they collect, and that foreign intelligence services are very likely using AI-enabled data analytics to find patterns and trends in bulk data, gain insights on individuals, and inform follow-on cyber operations.
The CSIS Public Report 2024, released June 2025, confirmed that PRC cyber threat actors had targeted members of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, including multiple Canadian Members of Parliament, in 2021. The NCTA also assessed that PRC cyber threat actors have very likely stolen commercially sensitive data from Canadian firms and institutions.
CSIS issued a security alert in November 2023 warning about a Chinese talent recruitment campaign targeting federal government employees through talent recruitment and technology transfer initiatives, which could result in the misappropriation of government resources and the loss of proprietary and sensitive information.
Harms
CSE assesses that the PRC likely has both the ability and intent to use machine learning to produce detailed intelligence profiles of individuals connected to Canadian democratic processes — including voters, politicians, media, public servants, and activists — using data from shopping habits, online activity, government records, and surveillance devices.
AI-generated profiles enable targeted foreign interference operations — identifying individuals susceptible to influence, generating personalized disinformation, and monitoring reactions — at a scale and precision not previously possible.
Evidence
3 reports
- National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025-2026 Primary source
States very likely use of AI-enabled data analytics; PRC very likely stole data from Canadian firms; PRC targeting of IPAC MPs
- Cyber Threats to Canada's Democratic Process: 2025 Update Primary source
Assessed as likely that PRC has ability and intent to use ML to produce intelligence profiles of targets connected to democratic processes
- CSIS Public Report 2024 Primary source
Confirmed PRC cyber targeting of Canadian MPs in IPAC in 2021
Record details
Policy Recommendationsassessed
Canada should develop counter-intelligence capabilities specifically designed to detect and disrupt ML-enabled foreign intelligence profiling
Communications Security Establishment (NCTA 2025-2026) (Oct 31, 2024)Canadian research institutions should implement due diligence protocols for international research collaborations in AI and dual-use technologies
CSIS security alert (Nov 1, 2023)Editorial Assessment assessed
CSE's assessment, framed specifically around democratic processes, identifies ML-enabled profiling as an enabling capability for foreign interference in Canada. The assessment uses "likely" — CSE's 60-74% probability threshold — reflecting genuine uncertainty about the extent and application of PRC ML capabilities to Canadian targets specifically.
Entities Involved
Related Records
- PRC Spamouflage Campaigns Used AI-Generated Deepfakes to Target Canadian Politicians and Criticsrelated
Taxonomyassessed
Changelog
| Version | Date | Change |
|---|---|---|
| v1 | Mar 11, 2026 | Initial publication |