Menaces de l'IA pour l'intégrité électorale et informationnelle au Canada
La désinformation générée par l'IA est apparue à grande échelle lors de l'élection fédérale canadienne de 2025. Les agences de renseignement du Canada évaluent la menace comme importante et croissante. Ni la loi électorale fédérale ni provinciale n'a été conçue pour traiter les médias synthétiques, et les institutions électorales manquent de capacité de détection technique — créant un écart concret et croissant entre la menace et la préparation institutionnelle, avec l'élection québécoise d'octobre 2026 comme prochain test à fort enjeu.
Description
Generative AI is creating concrete threats to the integrity of Canadian elections at both the federal and provincial levels. During the 2025 federal election, AI-generated deepfake videos of Prime Minister Mark Carney reached millions of viewers on TikTok, Facebook, and X. Over 40 Facebook pages ran fraudulent investment scams using AI-generated likenesses of Carney and Dragon’s Den personalities. Academic analysis documented the prevalence and platform dynamics of election deepfakes.
Canada’s intelligence agencies have assessed the threat as significant and growing. The Communications Security Establishment’s 2023 update on cyber threats to Canada’s democratic process identified generative AI as making it easier for state and non-state actors to produce convincing disinformation. The Hogue Commission’s final report on foreign interference identified AI-enabled disinformation as part of the broader threat landscape. CSE noted that the barrier to creating high-quality synthetic content has dropped substantially.
The legislative and institutional response has not kept pace. The Canada Elections Act was drafted before generative AI existed. While it prohibits certain misleading communications, it does not address synthetic media. The Chief Electoral Officer proposed targeted amendments in November 2024 but no legislation has been introduced. Elections Canada lacks dedicated technical capacity for synthetic media detection.
At the provincial level, Quebec’s Chief Electoral Officer (DGEQ) has publicly identified AI as a serious threat to the October 2026 provincial election while acknowledging his institution’s limited capacity to respond. Bill 98, adopted in May 2025, created an offense for knowingly spreading false election information with penalties up to $60,000 — but the DGEQ concedes that prosecution under the criminal standard of proof is extremely difficult. Élections Québec received complaints from citizens who obtained incorrect election information from commercial AI chatbots during municipal elections.
The Commission de l’éthique en science et en technologie (CEST) has documented that AI-generated deepfakes disproportionately target women through non-consensual pornographic content, potentially discouraging their political participation — adding a gendered dimension to the election integrity hazard.
The pattern is consistent across jurisdictions: institutional threat assessments identify AI disinformation as significant, but the governance response — legislative frameworks, detection capacity, platform obligations — lags behind the capability that enables the threat.
Voie de risque
L'IA générative réduit le coût de production de désinformation convaincante ciblant les électeurs canadiens — audio et vidéo synthétiques de personnalités politiques, fausses nouvelles, campagnes automatisées sur les réseaux sociaux — tandis que les institutions électorales canadiennes n'ont pas la capacité technique de détecter ou contrer le contenu généré par l'IA à grande échelle. Le droit canadien ne traite pas spécifiquement de la désinformation générée par l'IA dans les élections. La Loi électorale du Canada a été rédigée avant l'existence de l'IA générative. Le projet de loi 98 du Québec a créé une infraction, mais le DGEQ reconnaît que l'application est extrêmement difficile. L'écart entre le niveau de menace évalué et la préparation institutionnelle s'élargit.
Historique des évaluations
Des hypertrucages générés par l'IA sont apparus à grande échelle lors de l'élection fédérale canadienne de 2025. Le CST a évalué l'ingérence assistée par l'IA comme une menace importante. Le DGEQ a reconnu publiquement que les institutions électorales québécoises n'ont pas la capacité de contrer les menaces d'IA avant l'élection d'octobre 2026. Statut passé d'actif à en escalade sur la base du déploiement confirmé d'hypertrucages lors de l'élection fédérale de 2025.
Consolidates previous separate federal and Quebec hazard assessments. Status escalated based on confirmed deepfake activity during 2025 federal election.
Déclencheurs
- October 2026 Quebec provincial election
- Increasing accessibility and quality of voice cloning and deepfake generation tools
- Foreign state actors with demonstrated interest in Canadian electoral interference
- Social media platforms with limited capacity to detect or label synthetic content
- Commercial AI chatbots providing unvetted election information to voters
Facteurs atténuants
- CSE and CSIS awareness and monitoring of the threat
- Quebec Bill 98 creating an offense for knowingly spreading false election information
- Chief Electoral Officer's November 2024 proposal for targeted Canada Elections Act amendments
- CEST documentation of AI risks to democratic participation
- Academic and media scrutiny raising public awareness
Contrôles de risque
- Amend the Canada Elections Act to explicitly address AI-generated synthetic media used to mislead voters
- Develop technical capacity within Elections Canada and Élections Québec for synthetic media detection
- Require AI platform operators to label, restrict, or redirect election-related queries to official sources during election periods
- Establish cross-agency coordination between CSE, CSIS, and Elections Canada for real-time AI disinformation threat monitoring
- Fund public media literacy campaigns on AI-generated disinformation, with francophone and Indigenous-language components
- Strengthen enforcement mechanisms for Quebec's Bill 98 beyond the criminal standard of proof
Incidents matérialisés
- AI Deepfake Videos of Prime Minister Carney Used to Defraud Canadians and Disrupt 2025 Federal Election
- AI-Generated Content and Bot Networks Targeted Canada's 2025 Federal Election at Scale
Populations touchées
- Canadian voters
- Quebec voters facing October 2026 provincial election
- Political candidates and elected officials
- Women targeted by gendered deepfake harassment discouraging political participation
- Election administrators
Entités impliquées
A publié l'évaluation des cybermenaces de 2023 identifiant les hypertrucages par IA comme menace importante pour les élections canadiennes
Autorité électorale n'ayant pas de capacité technique dédiée pour la détection de médias synthétiques
Autorité électorale reconnaissant les menaces de l'IA et planifiant le déploiement d'un agent conversationnel IA interne pour l'élection d'octobre 2026
A documenté les risques de l'IA pour la participation démocratique incluant le harcèlement genré par hypertrucage dans un rapport de 2024
Réponses
Published updated cyber threats assessment identifying AI deepfakes as significant threat to Canadian democratic processes
Chief Electoral Officer proposed targeted amendments to the Canada Elections Act to address synthetic media
Supported adoption of Bill 98 creating offense for knowingly spreading false election information
Published report documenting AI risks to democratic participation including gendered deepfake harassment
DGEQ publicly warned voters against relying on AI chatbots for election information
Fiches connexes
- carney-deepfake-election-scam related
- AI Content Moderation Systems Disproportionately Removing French, Indigenous, and Racialized Content related
- AI-Generated Wildfire Images Spread Emergency Misinformation During British Columbia's 2025 Fire Season related
Taxonomie
Sources
- Cyber Threats to Canada's Democratic Process: 2023 Update
- Deepfakes in the 2025 Canadian Election: Prevalence, Partisanship, and Platform Dynamics
- Final Report of the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions
- Artificial intelligence: the Quebec electoral officer calls for better legislative oversight
- Deepfake video of Canadian Prime Minister reaches millions on TikTok, X
Historique des modifications
| Version | Date | Modification |
|---|---|---|
| v1 | 8 mars 2026 | Initial publication consolidating federal and Quebec election integrity hazards |